TY  - JOUR
AU  - Gräfe, Andreas
AU  - Orwat, Carsten
PY  - 2007
TI  - Prediction Markets as a Mechanism for Public Engagement? A First Classification and Open Questions
SP  - 137-142
JF  - International Journal of Technology, Knowledge and Society
VL  - 3
IS  - 4
N1  - Prediction Markets as a Mechanism for Public Engagement? A First Classification and Open Questions
N1  - English
N2  - Prediction markets are becoming increasingly popular because of their astounding performance in terms of forecasting or decision-making. In particular, they enable arbitrarily composed groups of people to accurately predict future events by buying and selling virtual stocks that represent a bet on the outcome of those events. These predictions are often more accurate than traditional opinion polls or judgments of individual experts. This is especially interesting for activities of public engagement, which usually call for a preferably broad involvement of participants in order to improve the reliability and acceptability of public decisions. The present paper describes the general concept of prediction markets and introduces the method to the field of public engagement. In particular, an existing typology is adopted for the classification of prediction markets among public engagement mechanisms. We find out that prediction markets enable a new and unique type of public engagement mechanisms, which provides answers to specific questions by aggregating information from preferably large, arbitrarily composed samples in a structured manner. Yet, further research is needed to evaluate and establish prediction markets in the field of public engagement.
UR  - http://ijt.cgpublisher.com/product/pub.42/prod.369
ID  - 14
ER  -